The State of MK: A One Election Wonder?

Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) was the disruptor-in-chief of last year’s South African Election. Formed barely six months before Election Day, the party stormed into third place achieving 14.58% of the vote.

Most of its vote was won off the African National Congress (ANC) who was pushed well below 50% (ending up on 40.18%) and forced to form a coalition Government of National Unity (GNU) with the Democratic Alliance (DA) and eight other parties.

Following the absorption of the DA into the GNU, MK became the official opposition in Parliament. In addition to its representation in Parliament, the party won representation in seven out of nine provincial legislatures, the Northern and Western Cape proving to be beyond reach.

MK’s best provincial performance was in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) where it won 45% of the vote and became the biggest party in the province, decimating the ANC who dropped 37 percentage points to 17%. The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) came second in the province, winning 18% of the vote.

MK’s other provincial breakthroughs came in Mpumalanga and Gauteng. In Mpumalanga, the party displaced the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) as the official opposition, winning 17% of the vote. And in Gauteng, the party came in fourth winning 10% of the vote and eight seats in the provincial legislature.

Its electoral success was predominantly a result of ANC voter disgruntlement with Cyril Ramaphosa’s presidency driven by a vengeful Jacob Zuma with a point to prove. The majority of its votes came from Zulu speakers but to classify it as solely being a Zulu party is a mistake. Look at the party’s performance in Limpopo, Eastern Cape, North West and the Free State where MK has public representatives now. The 2024 election established MK as a party of national influence with a solid platform for further growth.

MK enjoyed the most successful debut of any new party (and ANC breakaway) since the dawn of democracy, eclipsing the relative success of the Congress of the People (COPE) in 2009 and the EFF in 2014. This is largely due to the fact it was led in the election by former President, Jacob Zuma (whose face appeared on the ballot) and was able to capitalise in a populist manner on the numerous issues facing South Africans.

In the months following the election, the party was able to sustain some momentum, continuing to cannibalise the EFF by attracting key personnel such as former EFF Deputy President, Floyd Shivambu, former EFF Chairperson, Dali Mpofu and former Public Protector, Busisiwe Mkhwebane. And in by-elections last year, MK won three wards off the ANC.

Despite this, Jacob Zuma’s party soon found itself in rough waters. It is riven by internal conflict, struggling to define itself as an effective official opposition and starting to record some sub-optimal by-election results.

Internal Conflict

When Floyd Shivambu took over as MK’s Secretary-General on 10 November 2024, he became the fifth individual to occupy the post since the party was formed in December 2023. His tenure so far has been blighted by a public rift with Jacob Zuma’s daughter, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla. Last month, she insulted Shivambu on X saying that he is “the worst thing that has happened to MK”. She was subsequently forced to apologise by her father.

This recent public airing of internal discontent was compounded by reports of conflict between Leader of the Parliamentary caucus, John Hlophe, and Parliamentary Chief Whip, Mzwanele Manyi. This stemmed over disagreements in approach to the debate on this year’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) by Cyril Ramaphosa.

In Mpumalanga, there is an ongoing dispute as to who the actual provincial convener of the party is: Busisiwe Mkhwebane or Mary Phadi – whose expulsion that made way for Mkhwebane was ruled unconstitutional.

The party has also been embroiled in a regular stream of litigation, much of it stemming from the summary expulsion of some MPs from the Parliamentary caucus in August 2024.

That there is division and internal discord in MK is now established as fact. And Jacob Zuma will know that divided parties lose elections. One only needs to look at the demise of COPE due to factional infighting that emerged soon after its Election 2009 breakthrough.

Parliamentary Performance

MK is under performing as the official opposition. The reply to this year’s SONA was wasted on a hagiography of former President Zuma (who was in attendance) when the moment called for a devastating critique of Cyril Ramaphosa’s lack of action since his previous SONA: there was more than enough ammunition.

Its posturing on the budget has been lukewarm at best. Given that the postponement of South Africa’s budget was so unprecedented (the first time a postponement has happened since the dawn of democracy), MK had a golden opportunity to seize the mantle as the champion of the poor, setting out alternatives to those of a flailing Finance Minister. Instead, it ceded ground and the initiative to the DA who won the budget propaganda battle.

As we have stated here previously, the GNU will be judged on its ability to deal with South Africa’s pressing problems: cost of living, unemployment, corruption, crime and poor local government performance. MK’s bread and butter should be driving issues within these themes on a day-to-day basis, demonstrating that it is a viable alternative to the current Government.

The party, however, seems to be unsure how to do this and to lack a strategy as an opposition party. Its Chief Whip was quoted in the Daily Maverick saying “it is a very difficult thing to be an opposition without a budget…Communities ask: what have you guys done? But what have we done with what? We cannot build roads, clinics or houses”.

By-Elections

Despite some initial good by-election performances last year, MK is hitting some troubled waters, especially in its stronghold of KZN. Last month, the party suffered a setback in uMhlabuyalingana where it only mustered 19% of the vote having won 54% in the same ward in the General Election. Turnout in the by-election was comparable to that of the general election so it is reflective of an inability to sustain support at a local level.

In Ward 2 in Msunduzi in December, the party also underwhelmed only mustering 37% of the vote in a ward where it cleared 50% in the General Election.

In other wards contested this year, the party has not shot the lights out with the notable exception of Ward 35 in Bekkersdal in Rand West City last month where the party achieved 17% (having achieved 9% in May’s election).

The Road to 2026

As with all other parties, the local government elections scheduled to take place between November 2026 and February 2027 will be a key milestone. Its 2024 foundation has set MK up with the opportunities to win a metro such as Ethekwini, win other municipalities in KZN and perhaps become kingmaker in key Gauteng Metros.

However, its playbook for the local elections cannot continue to rely on the personality cult that is Jacob Zuma and a populist anti-ANC message. It has been elected on a mandate and its voters expect it to operate as an active crusader for change in Parliament and Provincial Legislatures.

Recent by-elections and polling show that it is losing momentum. If it is not able to stem the bleeding, deal with its factionalism and focus on what matters to voters, the party faces being a one-election wonder.